Trajectory Matching

Parameters

Parameter names

States names

Zero name(s)

Time zero (t0)

Maximum time step

Scripts

'var seas, vaccine, dy = [];
var R0 = params[0], amplitude = params[1], gamma = params[2], mu = params[3], sigma = params[4];
var beta0 = R0 * (gamma + mu) * (sigma + mu) / sigma;
var S = N[0], E = N[1], I = N[2], R = N[3];
if (t < 1968)
  vaccine = 0;
else if (t >= 1968 && t <= 1969)
  vaccine = 0.33;
else if (t >= 1969 && t <= 1970)
  vaccine = 0.46;
else if (t >= 1970 && t <= 1971)
  vaccine = 0.51;
else if (t >= 1971 && t <= 1972)
  vaccine = 0.53;
else if (t >= 1972 && t <= 1973)
  vaccine = 0.52;
else if (t >= 1973 && t <= 1974)
  vaccine = 0.46;
else if (t >= 1974 && t <= 1975)
  vaccine = 0.46;
else if (t >= 1975 && t <= 1976)
  vaccine = 0.48;
else if (t >= 1976 && t <= 1977)
  vaccine = 0.48;
else if (t >= 1977 && t <= 1978)
  vaccine = 0.51;
else if (t >= 1978 && t <= 1979)
  vaccine = 0.53;
else if (t >= 1979 && t <= 1980)
  vaccine = 0.55;
else if (t >= 1980 && t <= 1981)
  vaccine = 0.58;
else if (t >= 1981 && t <= 1982)
  vaccine = 0.60;
else if (t >= 1982 && t <= 1983)
  vaccine = 0.63;
else if (t >= 1983 && t <= 1984)
  vaccine = 0.68;
else if (t >= 1984 && t <= 1985)
  vaccine = 0.71;
else if (t >= 1985 && t <= 1988)
  vaccine = 0.76;
else if (t >= 1988 && t <= 1989)
  vaccine = 0.814;
else if (t >= 1989 && t <= 1990)
  vaccine = 0.9488;
else if (t >= 1990 && t <= 1991)
  vaccine = 0.9818;
else if (t >= 1991 && t <= 1992)
  vaccine = 0.90;
else if (t >= 1992 && t <= 1993)
  vaccine = 0.92;
else if (t >= 1993 && t <= 1994)
  vaccine = 0.91;
else if (t >= 1994 && t <= 1995)
  vaccine = 0.91;
else if (t >= 1995 && t <= 1996)
  vaccine = 0.92;
else if (t >= 1996 && t <= 1997)
  vaccine = 0.92;
else if (t >= 1997 && t <= 1998)
  vaccine = 0.91;
else if (t >= 1998 && t <= 1999)
  vaccine = 0.88;
else if (t >= 1999 && t <= 2000)
  vaccine = 0.88;
else if (t >= 2000 && t <= 2001)
  vaccine = 0.87;
else if (t >= 2001 && t <= 2002)
  vaccine = 0.84;
else if (t >= 2002 && t <= 2003)
  vaccine = 0.82;
else if (t >= 2003 && t <= 2004)
  vaccine = 0.80;
else if (t >= 2004 && t <= 2005)
  vaccine = 0.81;
else if (t >= 2005 && t <= 2006)
  vaccine = 0.84;
else if (t >= 2006 && t <= 2007)
  vaccine = 0.85;
else if (t >= 2007 && t <= 2008)
  vaccine = 0.85;
else if (t >= 2008 && t <= 2009)
  vaccine = 0.85;
else if (t >= 2009 && t <= 2010)
  vaccine = 0.88;
else
  vaccine = 0.89;
var tt = (t - Math.floor(t)) * 365.25;
if ((tt >= 7 && tt <= 100) || (tt >= 115 && tt <= 199) || (tt >= 252 && tt <= 300) || (tt >= 308 && tt <= 356)) {
  seas = 1 + amplitude * 0.2411 / 0.7589;
} else {
  seas = 1 - amplitude
}
var Beta = beta0 * seas / pop;
dy[0] = birthrate * (1 - vaccine) - Beta * S * I - mu * S;
dy[1] = Beta * S * I - (sigma + mu) * E;
dy[2] = sigma * E - (gamma + mu) * I;
dy[3] = gamma * I - mu * R + birthrate * vaccine;
dy[4] = gamma * I;
return dy'

Covariates and Cases

Covariates Uploaded

Drop covariates file here

Browse

Cases Uploaded

Drop cases file here

Browse

Parameters

Scripts

Covariates and Cases

Initial Search

Parameter	Lower bound	Upper bound
R0
amplitude
gamma
mu
sigma
rho
psi
S_0
E_0
I_0
R_0

Parameters

Scripts

Covariates and Cases

Parameters

Console

Log Scale

Flag Bound

Console

Log Scale

Flag Bound

Console

Log Scale

Flag Bound

Console

Log Scale

Flag Bound

Console

Log Scale

Flag Bound

Console

Parameters

Scripts

Covariates and Cases

Parameters

Console

Initial Points

Refinements

Log Scale

Flag Bound

Console

Log Scale

Flag Bound

Console

Log Scale

Flag Bound

Console

Log Scale

Flag Bound

Console

Log Scale

Flag Bound

Console